January 23rd, 2012
By Kane Cotton
| |
20-Jan-12 |
13-Jan-12 |
Weekly% Change |
YTD% Change |
12 month %Change |
| S&P 500 Index |
|
1,315.38 |
1,289.09 |
2.04% |
4.59% |
2.50% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average |
|
12,720.48 |
12,422.06 |
2.40% |
4.12% |
7.15% |
| Nasdaq Composite |
|
2,786.70 |
2,710.67 |
2.80% |
6.97% |
3.61% |
| Wilshire 5000 |
|
13,760.86 |
13,472.37 |
2.14% |
4.97% |
1.94% |
| MSCI EAFE (Intl.) |
|
1,472.05 |
1,417.89 |
3.82% |
4.21% |
-11.97% |
| 10 Year U. S. Treasury Yield |
|
2.02% |
1.96% |
3.06% |
NA |
NA |
| 30 year U.S. Treasury Yield |
|
3.10% |
3.02% |
2.65% |
NA |
NA |
Earnings season was in high gear last week, and the results were good enough to keep the rally going. All major domestic stock indices were up last week, and international stocks (finally) did even better. Treasuries lost ground. Read the rest of this entry »
Tags: cfa, Kane Cotton, performance, stocks
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January 17th, 2012
By Kane Cotton
| |
13-Jan-12 |
6-Jan-12 |
Weekly% Change |
YTD% Change |
12 month %Change |
| S&P 500 Index |
|
1,289.09 |
1,277.81 |
0.88% |
2.50% |
-0.32% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average |
|
12,422.06 |
12,359.92 |
0.50% |
1.67% |
5.38% |
| Nasdaq Composite |
|
2,710.67 |
2,674.22 |
1.36% |
4.05% |
-1.62% |
| Wilshire 5000 |
|
13,472.37 |
13,315.50 |
1.18% |
2.77% |
-1.47% |
| MSCI EAFE (Intl.) |
|
1,417.89 |
1,406.71 |
0.79% |
0.38% |
-16.05% |
| 10 Year U. S. Treasury Yield |
|
1.96% |
1.96% |
0.00% |
NA |
NA |
| 30 year U.S. Treasury Yield |
|
3.02% |
3.01% |
0.33% |
NA |
NA |
Earnings season has begun to heat up with quite a few financial firms reporting last week. How did they fare? Not great. JP Morgan Chase (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC) and Citigroup (C) all reported earnings in the last week, and year-over-year, earnings were up down 14%, up 20% and down 11%, respectively. There was a high degree of difference between the earnings power of the three firms.
Read the rest of this entry »
Tags: financial sector, JP Morgan Chase, Kane Cotton, Wells Fargo
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January 9th, 2012
By Kane Cotton
| |
6-Jan-12 |
30-Dec-11 |
Weekly% Change |
YTD% Change |
12 month %Change |
| S&P 500 Index |
|
1,277.81 |
1,257.60 |
1.61% |
1.61% |
0.50% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average |
|
12,359.92 |
12,217.56 |
1.17% |
1.17% |
5.87% |
| Nasdaq Composite |
|
2,674.22 |
2,605.15 |
2.65% |
2.65% |
-1.07% |
| Wilshire 5000 |
|
13,315.50 |
13,109.55 |
1.57% |
1.57% |
-0.84% |
| MSCI EAFE (Intl.) |
|
1,406.71 |
1,412.55 |
-0.41% |
-0.41% |
-14.68% |
| 10 Year U. S. Treasury Yield |
|
1.96% |
2.00% |
-2.00% |
NA |
NA |
| 30 year U.S. Treasury Yield |
|
3.01% |
3.03% |
-0.66% |
NA |
NA |
Last week kicked off a decent start to 2012, with stocks rising broadly in the U.S. While it’s awfully early to get too excited over just one week, it was a week of gains, and we’ll take it. Read the rest of this entry »
Tags: Kane Cotton, labor department, unemployment
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January 3rd, 2012
By Kane Cotton
| |
30-Dec-11 |
23-Dec-11 |
Weekly% Change |
YTD% Change |
12 month %Change |
| S&P 500 Index |
|
1,257.60 |
1,265.33 |
-0.61% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average |
|
12,217.56 |
12,294.00 |
-0.62% |
5.53% |
5.53% |
| Nasdaq Composite |
|
2,605.15 |
2,618.64 |
-0.52% |
-1.80% |
-1.80% |
| Wilshire 5000 |
|
13,109.55 |
13,197.25 |
-0.66% |
-1.36% |
-1.36% |
| MSCI EAFE (Intl.) |
|
1,412.55 |
1,401.60 |
0.78% |
-14.82% |
-14.82% |
| 10 Year U. S. Treasury Yield |
|
2.00% |
2.02% |
-0.99% |
NA |
NA |
| 30 year U.S. Treasury Yield |
|
3.03% |
3.05% |
-0.66% |
NA |
NA |
1,257 was the closing value for the S&P 500 on Friday, the last trading day of 2011. 1,257 was also the closing value for the S&P 500 exactly a year prior, on December 31, 2010. Statistically speaking, the odds of that happening are very, very low. Nonetheless, it happened. Read the rest of this entry »
Tags: american economy, cfa, European Sovereign Debt, Kane Cotton, S&P 500
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December 27th, 2011
By Kane Cotton
| |
23-Dec-11 |
16-Dec-11 |
Weekly% Change |
YTD% Change |
12 month %Change |
| S&P 500 Index |
|
1,265.33 |
1,219.66 |
3.74% |
0.61% |
0.68% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average |
|
12,294.00 |
11,866.39 |
3.60% |
6.19% |
6.23% |
| Nasdaq Composite |
|
2,618.64 |
2,555.33 |
2.48% |
-1.29% |
-1.76% |
| Wilshire 5000 |
|
13,197.25 |
12,736.87 |
3.61% |
-0.70% |
-0.64% |
| MSCI EAFE (Intl.) |
|
1,401.60 |
1,370.78 |
2.25% |
-15.48% |
-14.83% |
| 10 Year U. S. Treasury Yield |
|
2.02% |
2.01% |
0.50% |
NA |
NA |
| 30 year U.S. Treasury Yield |
|
3.05% |
3.05% |
0.00% |
NA |
NA |
Light trading volumes are a regular occurrence during Holiday weeks on the stock exchanges. Last week was no exception, and we suspect that this week will be the same. Light volume can, and sometimes does, result in wide swings in prices. Last week saw domestic stock indices gain between two and four percent. Historically, weekly changes of that magnitude might have stood out. In 2011, moves like that seem like just more of the same. Read the rest of this entry »
Tags: domestic stock indices, Kane Cotton, long-term credit
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December 19th, 2011
By Kane Cotton
| |
16-Dec-11 |
9-Dec-11 |
Weekly% Change |
YTD% Change |
12 month %Change |
| S&P 500 Index |
|
1,219.66 |
1,255.19 |
-2.83% |
-3.02% |
-1.95% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average |
|
11,866.39 |
12,184.26 |
-2.61% |
2.50% |
3.26% |
| Nasdaq Composite |
|
2,555.33 |
2,646.85 |
-3.46% |
-3.68% |
-3.32% |
| Wilshire 5000 |
|
12,736.87 |
13,118.90 |
-2.91% |
-4.16% |
-3.09% |
| MSCI EAFE (Intl.) |
|
1,370.78 |
1,428.19 |
-4.02% |
-17.34% |
-15.88% |
| 10 Year U. S. Treasury Yield |
|
2.01% |
2.06% |
-2.43% |
NA |
NA |
| 30 year U.S. Treasury Yield |
|
3.05% |
3.11% |
-1.93% |
NA |
NA |
“Where do you think you’re going? Nobody’s leaving. Nobody’s walking out on this fun, old-fashioned family Christmas. Nooo no. We’re all in this together. This is a full blown, four-alarm holiday emergency here. We’re going to press on, and we’re gonna have the hap-hap-happiest Christmas since Bing Crosby tap danced with Danny Kaye!!”
-Clark Griswold, National Lampoon’s Christmas Vacation (1989)
The quote from above comes about half way into the chaotic family Christmas tale when extended family members try to call it quits and go home since nothing seems to have gone right at their family gathering. After troubling experiences with an oversized Christmas tree with a squirrel in it, an uninvited and poor-mannered cousin, an unruly Rottweiler and fights with neighbors and Christmas light strands, the relatives have had enough and want to leave. Ever the idealist, though, Clark won’t let them. In a way, it kind of reminds me of Europe. Read the rest of this entry »
Tags: european debt problems, Kane Cotton
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December 12th, 2011
By Kane Cotton
| |
9-Dec-11 |
2-Dec-11 |
Weekly% Change |
YTD% Change |
12 month %Change |
| S&P 500 Index |
|
1,255.19 |
1,244.28 |
0.88% |
0.19% |
1.19% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average |
|
12,184.26 |
12,019.42 |
1.37% |
5.24% |
6.78% |
| Nasdaq Composite |
|
2,646.85 |
2,626.93 |
0.76% |
-0.23% |
0.35% |
| Wilshire 5000 |
|
13,118.90 |
13,012.77 |
0.82% |
-1.29% |
0.10% |
| MSCI EAFE (Intl.) |
|
1,428.19 |
1,441.07 |
-0.89% |
-13.88% |
-11.83% |
| 10 Year U. S. Treasury Yield |
|
2.06% |
2.03% |
1.48% |
NA |
NA |
| 30 year U.S. Treasury Yield |
|
3.11% |
3.03% |
2.64% |
NA |
NA |
“What have Bill Gross, John Paulson, Anthony Bolton and Bill Miller all got in common? They are all ‘rock star’ fund managers who have fallen on hard times more recently. Life in the fund management industry is not what it used to be like. Life is tough even for the supremely skilled. Markets are changing, fund managers are struggling to adapt and clients are growing restless as a result.”
-Niels C. Jensen, The Absolute Return Letter December 2011
2011 will very likely end as a year that many money managers will want to forget. Returns have been hard to come by for even the savviest of investors, and it has seemed that the world has never been more interconnected. Any given week could have seen markets up or down multiple percentage points, and the moves seemed to come on the backs of some politician somewhere promising to promise something at some point in the future. I know that this has been a frustrating roller coaster ride for many of you. Believe me, it has been a frustrating year for me as well. Read the rest of this entry »
Tags: Anthony Bolton, Bill Gross, indexes, The Absolute Return
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December 5th, 2011
By Kane Cotton
| |
2-Dec-11 |
25-Nov-11 |
Weekly% Change |
YTD% Change |
12 month %Change |
| S&P 500 Index |
|
1,244.28 |
1,158.67 |
7.39% |
-1.10% |
1.60% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average |
|
12,019.42 |
11,231.78 |
7.01% |
3.80% |
5.60% |
| Nasdaq Composite |
|
2,626.93 |
2,441.51 |
7.59% |
-1.00% |
1.40% |
| Wilshire 5000 |
|
13,012.77 |
12,090.56 |
7.63% |
-2.10% |
0.60% |
| MSCI EAFE (Intl.) |
|
1,441.07 |
1,321.23 |
9.07% |
-13.10% |
-9.66% |
| 10 Year U. S. Treasury Yield |
|
2.03% |
1.96% |
3.57% |
NA |
NA |
| 30 year U.S. Treasury Yield |
|
3.03% |
2.92% |
3.77% |
NA |
NA |
Did the Santa Claus rally come early this year? You could have easily drawn that conclusion after a quick look at the weekly change figures from last week (see above). But a man in a red suit was not behind all this green. Last week was full of a variety of great surprises. Read the rest of this entry »
Tags: central banks, citigroup, federal reserve, Kane Cotton
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November 28th, 2011
By Kane Cotton
| |
11-Nov-11 |
4-Nov-11 |
Weekly% Change |
YTD% Change |
12 month %Change |
| S&P 500 Index |
|
1,158.67 |
1,215.65 |
-4.69% |
-7.87% |
-2.58% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average |
|
11,231.78 |
11,796.16 |
-4.78% |
-2.99% |
1.26% |
| Nasdaq Composite |
|
2,441.51 |
2,572.50 |
-5.09% |
-7.97% |
-3.67% |
| DJ U.S. Total Stock Market |
|
12,090.56 |
12,718.11 |
-4.93% |
-9.03% |
-3.74% |
| MSCI EAFE (Intl.) |
|
1,321.23 |
1,400.49 |
-5.66% |
-20.33% |
-17.01% |
| 10 Year U. S. Treasury Yield |
|
1.96% |
2.00% |
-2.00% |
NA |
NA |
| 30 year U.S. Treasury Yield |
|
2.92% |
2.99% |
-2.34% |
NA |
NA |
The contrast between Thanksgiving and Black Friday never ceases to amaze me. On Thanksgiving we dedicate a day to consciously thinking about all of the blessings that have touched our lives. It’s a day of peace, reflection and thanks. The next day, we wake up and try to plow down anyone and everyone who stands in front of us and a good deal. Read the rest of this entry »
Tags: black friday, investing vs. bargains, Kane Cotton
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November 22nd, 2011
By Kane Cotton
| |
11-Nov-11 |
4-Nov-11 |
Weekly% Change |
YTD% Change |
12 month %Change |
| S&P 500 Index |
|
1,215.65 |
1,263.85 |
-3.81% |
-3.34% |
1.33% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average |
|
11,796.16 |
12,153.68 |
-2.94% |
1.89% |
5.29% |
| Nasdaq Composite |
|
2,572.50 |
2,678.75 |
-3.97% |
-3.03% |
2.16% |
| Wilshire 5000 |
|
12,718.11 |
13,216.86 |
-3.77% |
-4.30% |
0.77% |
| MSCI EAFE (Intl.) |
|
1,400.49 |
1,460.88 |
-4.13% |
-15.55% |
-13.98% |
| 10 Year U. S. Treasury Yield |
|
2.00% |
2.03% |
-1.48% |
NA |
NA |
| 30 year U.S. Treasury Yield |
|
2.99% |
3.10% |
-3.55% |
NA |
NA |
Most stock markets declined last week after a few decent weeks of gains. Stresses emerged in Europe after two top politicians fell and were promptly replaced by economists in an effort to keep the European bailout afloat. Political stresses re-emerged as well in the U.S. as rumors spread that the debt reduction “Super-committee” failed to accomplish much of anything. Because of this failure, automatic spending cuts might be the future of numerous government programs. Of course, politicians could always just call a “do-over” and pass bills that would nullify the self-imposed “mandatory” cuts. Stay tuned. Read the rest of this entry »
Tags: Kane Cotton, slow economy, thanksgiving
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