May 8th, 2012
By Kane Cotton
| |
4-May-12 |
27-Apr-12 |
Weekly% Change |
YTD% Change |
12 month %Change |
| S&P 500 Index |
|
1,369.10 |
1,403.36 |
-2.44% |
8.87% |
2.16% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average |
|
13,038.27 |
13,228.31 |
-1.44% |
6.72% |
3.16% |
| Nasdaq Composite |
|
2,956.34 |
3,069.20 |
-3.68% |
13.48% |
4.55% |
| Wilshire 5000 |
|
14,314.10 |
14,707.59 |
-2.68% |
9.19% |
1.14% |
| MSCI EAFE (Intl.) |
|
1,483.87 |
1,521.38 |
-2.47% |
5.05% |
-16.60% |
| 10 Year U. S. Treasury Yield |
|
1.88% |
1.94% |
-3.09% |
NA |
NA |
| 30 year U.S. Treasury Yield |
|
3.07% |
3.12% |
-1.60% |
NA |
NA |
As expected, the political left made strides in Europe over the weekend. In France, Socialist candidate Francois Hollande ousted incumbent President Nicholas Sarkozy on a campaign platform that was strongly anti-austerity. In Greece, politicians who supported the last bailout—one which came with extremely deep austerity requirements—were thrown out en masse while a fragmented coalition of anti-austerity candidates were voted in. Even in conservative Germany, local candidates in Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrat party lost seats. Read the rest of this entry »
Tags: cfa, france, Greece, hollande, Kane Cotton
Posted in Weekly Insight | No Comments »
April 23rd, 2012
By Kane Cotton
| |
20-Apr-12 |
13-Apr-12 |
Weekly% Change |
YTD% Change |
12 month %Change |
| S&P 500 Index |
|
1,378.53 |
1,370.26 |
0.60% |
9.62% |
3.08% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average |
|
13,029.26 |
12,849.59 |
1.40% |
6.64% |
4.18% |
| Nasdaq Composite |
|
3,000.45 |
3,011.33 |
-0.36% |
15.17% |
6.39% |
| Wilshire 5000 |
|
14,434.74 |
14,342.89 |
0.64% |
10.11% |
1.98% |
| MSCI EAFE (Intl.) |
|
1,511.15 |
1,488.02 |
1.55% |
6.98% |
-13.03% |
| 10 Year U. S. Treasury Yield |
|
1.96% |
1.98% |
-1.01% |
NA |
NA |
| 30 year U.S. Treasury Yield |
|
3.12% |
3.13% |
-0.32% |
NA |
NA |
This week is a big week for earnings, as the pace of reporting will increase dramatically. In all, about 180 S&P 500 constituent companies will report results this week.
So far, most companies have exceeded Wall Street’s already scaled back estimates, and aside from simply having a lot of reports, this week will feature many industry leaders. Among them is Apple (AAPL), arguably the growth story of the decade (that comment should not be considered a recommendation to buy, sell or hold the stock). Read the rest of this entry »
Tags: debt assumptions, earnings week, Kane Cotton
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April 16th, 2012
By Kane Cotton
| |
13-Apr-12 |
5-Apr-12 |
Weekly% Change |
YTD% Change |
12 month %Change |
| S&P 500 Index |
|
1,370.26 |
1,398.08 |
-1.99% |
8.96% |
3.83% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average |
|
12,849.59 |
13,060.14 |
-1.61% |
5.17% |
4.11% |
| Nasdaq Composite |
|
3,011.33 |
3,080.50 |
-2.25% |
15.59% |
8.92% |
| Wilshire 5000 |
|
14,342.89 |
14,634.80 |
-1.99% |
9.41% |
2.71% |
| MSCI EAFE (Intl.) |
|
1,488.02 |
1,506.03 |
-1.20% |
5.34% |
-14.03% |
| 10 Year U. S. Treasury Yield |
|
1.98% |
2.05% |
-3.41% |
NA |
NA |
| 30 year U.S. Treasury Yield |
|
3.13% |
3.22% |
-2.80% |
NA |
NA |
We are about a week into Q1 earnings season, and outlining the trends we’re seeing seems timely. As you may recall, we explained that 2012 would likely be a year of still positive economic growth as well as positive, yet slowing, earnings growth.
Wall Street analysts, usually a somewhat optimistic bunch, have been tempering down their expectations for almost a year now, bringing their Q1 expectations for S&P 500 operating earnings down from about $26.50 last July to about $23.80 as of Friday. That is a decrease of 10% for those of you who don’t have a calculator handy. Read the rest of this entry »
Tags: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Kane Cotton, Q1 Earnings, S&P
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April 10th, 2012
By Kane Cotton
| |
5-Apr-12 |
30-Mar-12 |
Weekly% Change |
YTD% Change |
12 month %Change |
| S&P 500 Index |
|
1,398.08 |
1,408.47 |
-0.74% |
11.17% |
4.84% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average |
|
13,060.14 |
13,212.04 |
-1.15% |
6.90% |
5.24% |
| Nasdaq Composite |
|
3,080.50 |
3,091.57 |
-0.36% |
18.25% |
10.17% |
| Wilshire 5000 |
|
14,634.80 |
14,753.08 |
-0.80% |
11.63% |
3.64% |
| MSCI EAFE (Intl.) |
|
1,506.03 |
1,553.46 |
-3.05% |
6.62% |
-12.62% |
| 10 Year U. S. Treasury Yield |
|
2.05% |
2.21% |
-7.24% |
NA |
NA |
| 30 year U.S. Treasury Yield |
|
3.22% |
3.34% |
-3.59% |
NA |
NA |
Markets got jittery last week on a couple pieces of macroeconomic news, but given how the same news might have pummeled markets last fall when a Euro zone break up and a Greek default were being weighed, the declines seem modest. The mood of the day does, indeed, matter. Read the rest of this entry »
Tags: bond market, Europe Economy, Kane Cotton, spain, Treasury, unemployment
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April 3rd, 2012
By Kane Cotton
| |
30-Mar-12 |
23-Mar-12 |
Weekly% Change |
YTD% Change |
12 month %Change |
| S&P 500 Index |
|
1,397.11 |
1,397.11 |
0.00% |
11.09% |
6.34% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average |
|
13,212.04 |
13,080.73 |
1.00% |
8.14% |
6.75% |
| Nasdaq Composite |
|
3,091.57 |
3,067.92 |
0.77% |
18.67% |
10.82% |
| Wilshire 5000 |
|
14,753.08 |
14,650.56 |
0.70% |
12.54% |
4.55% |
| MSCI EAFE (Intl.) |
|
1,553.46 |
1,581.00 |
-1.74% |
9.97% |
-8.76% |
| 10 Year U. S. Treasury Yield |
|
2.21% |
2.23% |
-0.90% |
NA |
NA |
| 30 year U.S. Treasury Yield |
|
3.34% |
3.30% |
1.21% |
NA |
NA |
Over the weekend, Europe solved its debt crisis and U.S. leaders put their own ambitions aside and voted to put our country on a sustainable path toward debt reduction. Goldman Sachs even got into the act by vowing to donate its entire 2012 corporate profit to charity. April Fools!
Okay, I know…bad joke. What wasn’t a bad joke were the returns enjoyed by stock investors in the first quarter. As the year-to-date (YTD) numbers in the table above show, many stock indices achieved first quarter returns that could easily be considered attractive for a full year, much less a single quarter. Read the rest of this entry »
Tags: austerity, GDP, Greece, Kane Cotton
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March 27th, 2012
By Kane Cotton
| |
23-Mar-12 |
16-Mar-12 |
Weekly% Change |
YTD% Change |
12 month %Change |
| S&P 500 Index |
|
1,397.11 |
1,404.17 |
-0.50% |
11.09% |
6.34% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average |
|
13,080.73 |
13,232.62 |
-1.15% |
7.06% |
7.04% |
| Nasdaq Composite |
|
3,067.92 |
3,055.26 |
0.41% |
17.76% |
11.84% |
| Wilshire 5000 |
|
14,650.56 |
14,718.17 |
-0.46% |
11.75% |
5.53% |
| MSCI EAFE (Intl.) |
|
1,581.00 |
1,581.00 |
0.00% |
11.92% |
-1.23% |
| 10 Year U. S. Treasury Yield |
|
2.23% |
2.28% |
-2.19% |
NA |
NA |
| 30 year U.S. Treasury Yield |
|
3.30% |
3.41% |
-3.23% |
NA |
NA |
There has been a lot to dislike about the bull market investors have been enjoying since March 2009. Trading volume has been low, suggesting that many investors have not participated in the over 100% appreciation of the market since the lows. Unemployment has been stubbornly high, savings rates have been stubbornly low, and the list goes on. Read the rest of this entry »
Tags: Kane Cotton, obama health care, supreme court
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March 19th, 2012
By Kane Cotton
| |
16-Mar-12 |
9-Mar-12 |
Weekly% Change |
YTD% Change |
12 month %Change |
| S&P 500 Index |
|
1,404.17 |
1,370.87 |
2.43% |
11.65% |
9.77% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average |
|
13,232.62 |
12,922.02 |
2.40% |
8.31% |
11.59% |
| Nasdaq Composite |
|
3,055.26 |
2,988.34 |
2.24% |
17.28% |
15.57% |
| Wilshire 5000 |
|
14,718.17 |
14,395.35 |
2.24% |
12.27% |
9.04% |
| MSCI EAFE (Intl.) |
|
1,581.00 |
1,561.54 |
1.25% |
11.92% |
-1.23% |
| 10 Year U. S. Treasury Yield |
|
2.28% |
2.03% |
12.32% |
NA |
NA |
| 30 year U.S. Treasury Yield |
|
3.41% |
3.18% |
7.23% |
NA |
NA |
Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke and crew met last week, and while no real policy changes were made, some of the comments almost sounded hawkish. By hawkish, of course, I mean that there were voiced worries by some in the meeting that maybe the policy of easy money should be reconsidered, lest we risk the possibility of rising inflation. Read the rest of this entry »
Tags: bernanke, Kane Cotton, treasury yields
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March 12th, 2012
By Kane Cotton
| |
9-Mar-12 |
2-Mar-12 |
Weekly% Change |
YTD% Change |
12 month %Change |
| S&P 500 Index |
|
1,370.87 |
1,369.63 |
0.09% |
9.01% |
5.11% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average |
|
12,922.02 |
12,977.57 |
-0.43% |
5.77% |
7.29% |
| Nasdaq Composite |
|
2,988.34 |
2,976.19 |
0.41% |
14.71% |
10.04% |
| Wilshire 5000 |
|
14,395.35 |
14,360.42 |
0.24% |
9.81% |
4.72% |
| MSCI EAFE (Intl.) |
|
1,561.54 |
1,561.54 |
0.00% |
10.55% |
-10.06% |
| 10 Year U. S. Treasury Yield |
|
2.03% |
1.97% |
3.05% |
NA |
NA |
| 30 year U.S. Treasury Yield |
|
3.18% |
3.10% |
2.58% |
NA |
NA |
Markets finally corrected a bit last week, with the S&P 500 suffering its first loss of over 1% in 2012. By the end of the week, bond yields were a bit higher, and stocks were mixed, having made up most of their losses from earlier in the week by the closing bell on Friday. Read the rest of this entry »
Tags: Greece, hedge funds, interest rates, Kane Cotton
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March 6th, 2012
By Kane Cotton
| |
2-Mar-12 |
Feb-24-12 |
Weekly% Change |
YTD% Change |
12 month %Change |
| S&P 500 Index |
|
1,369.63 |
1,365.74 |
0.28% |
8.91% |
3.67% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average |
|
12,977.57 |
12,982.95 |
-0.04% |
6.22% |
6.64% |
| Nasdaq Composite |
|
2,976.19 |
2,963.75 |
0.42% |
14.24% |
6.88% |
| Wilshire 5000 |
|
14,360.42 |
14,364.55 |
-0.03% |
9.54% |
2.92% |
| MSCI EAFE (Intl.) |
|
1,561.54 |
1,573.82 |
-0.78% |
10.55% |
-10.06% |
| 10 Year U. S. Treasury Yield |
|
1.97% |
1.97% |
0.00% |
NA |
NA |
| 30 year U.S. Treasury Yield |
|
3.10% |
3.14% |
-1.27% |
NA |
NA |
The Republican Presidential primaries may be nearing their final phase this week, should Mitt Romney sweep caucusing on Super Tuesday. To become the nominee for the Republican Party, one of the candidates will need to win 1,144 of the 2,286 (i.e., a majority) of the delegates. As of today, Romney leads the count with 173, followed by Santorum (74), Paul (37) and Gingrich (33). Read the rest of this entry »
Tags: bernanke, cfa, Kane Cotton, manufacturing, personal income
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February 27th, 2012
By Kane Cotton
| |
24-Feb-12 |
Feb-17-12 |
Weekly% Change |
YTD% Change |
12 month %Change |
| S&P 500 Index |
|
1,365.74 |
1,361.23 |
0.33% |
8.60% |
3.47% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average |
|
12,982.95 |
12,949.87 |
0.26% |
6.26% |
7.03% |
| Nasdaq Composite |
|
2,963.75 |
2,951.78 |
0.41% |
13.77% |
6.57% |
| Wilshire 5000 |
|
14,364.55 |
14,331.22 |
0.23% |
9.57% |
3.06% |
| MSCI EAFE (Intl.) |
|
1,573.82 |
1,571.27 |
0.16% |
11.42% |
-8.22% |
| 10 Year U. S. Treasury Yield |
|
1.97% |
2.00% |
-1.50% |
NA |
NA |
| 30 year U.S. Treasury Yield |
|
3.14% |
3.14% |
0.00% |
NA |
NA |
Did you drive by a gas station over the weekend or on your way to work this morning? Ouch. Prices have been creeping up, rising by over $0.80 nationally since November. On the East and West coasts, per gallon prices have already exceeded $4.00 per gallon. Prices have risen enough that now the mainstream media has started printing headlines like, "Gas Prices Climb for 20th Day," (CNN) and "Gas Near $4? Time for an Energy Policy" (Fox News).
Read the rest of this entry »
Tags: deflation, inflation, Kane Cotton
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