You may have heard recent talk of the “sideways market.” It is a market that moves up a bit, just to give it all back, and vice-versa. Then the cycle repeats. The market seems to churn aimlessly in a very tight range with almost no conviction in either direction. That is certainly the environment we’ve been in for over a month now. Trading within a 4% range since early November, the S&P 500 has been unable to move below about 1080 or above 1120. (more…)

“It is indeed true that the stock market can forecast the business cycle. The stock market has called nine of the last five recessions.”

Paul Samuelson, the economist who coined the satirical quote above, died over the weekend at the age of 94. His other accomplishments included winning the Nobel Prize in Economics in 1970, building the economics department at MIT into the respected program that it is today, and advising (in a non-official role) numerous presidents and policy makers. (more…)

Is this the most uncomfortable stock market rally you’ve lived through? It certainly seems that way to me. As asset prices have rebounded from the vacuum that was created last year after the real estate collapse and the run on the investment banks, no one seems to be comfortable with the fact that things are getting better. (more…)

The weeks during most major holidays are typically regarded by professional investors as somewhat unimportant to market action. To be sure, traders, strategists and the general populous are busy preparing themselves to spend time with family and to see if they can break their record for single-sitting calorie intake (I think my record is somewhere in the 4,000 range). (more…)