Archive for July, 2010

Weekly Insight: Tug-Of-War Continues

Wednesday, July 28th, 2010
By Kane Cotton
  23-July-10 16-July-10 Weekly% Change YTD% Change 12 month %Change
S&P 500 Index   1,102.66 1,064.88 3.55% -1.12% 12.60%
Dow Jones Industrial Average   10,424.62 10,097.90 3.24% -0.03% 14.64%
Nasdaq Composite   2,269.47 2,179.05 4.15% 0.01% 15.44%
Wilshire 5000   11,507.74 11,066.63 3.99% 0.09% 14.37%
MSCI EAFE (Intl.)   1,453.44 1,432.15 1.49% -8.06% 4.88%
10 Year U. S. Treasury Yield   2.99% 2.92% 2.40% NA NA
30 year U.S. Treasury Yield   4.02% 3.94% 2.03% NA NA

Good earnings reports trumped economic news last week, and stocks rallied strongly to break the recent downtrend line that had been in place since April. Fed head Ben Bernanke gave the markets a short bout of concern mid-week when he characterized the outlook for the economy as “unusually uncertain,” but the negative sentiment quickly faded as corporate results continued to come in strong. (more…)

Weekly Insight: Nice job. Now what?

Tuesday, July 20th, 2010
By Kane Cotton
  16-July-10 9-July-10 Weekly% Change YTD% Change 12 month %Change
S&P 500 Index   1,064.88 1,077.96 -1.21% -4.50% 13.24%
Dow Jones Industrial Average   10,097.90 10,198.03 -0.98% -3.17% 15.48%
Nasdaq Composite   2,179.05 2,196.45 -0.79% -3.97% 15.50%
Wilshire 5000   11,066.63 11,225.81 -1.42% -3.75% 14.86%
MSCI EAFE (Intl.)   1,432.15 1,414.96 1.21% -9.40% 8.48%
10 Year U. S. Treasury Yield   2.92% 3.05% -4.26% NA NA
30 year U.S. Treasury Yield   3.94% 4.04% -2.48% NA NA

Earnings reports started to flow steadily from corporate America last week, and results were generally good. In contrast, investor reaction to the reports was fairly tepid. Let’s jump straight into the numbers. Industry heavyweights reported last week. According to Barron’s, earnings grew 76% at JP Morgan Chase (JPM) and 51% at railroad company CSX (CSX). Tech bell-weather Intel (INTC) beat most analysts’ estimates on profits, and, believe it or not, posted record revenues. Think about that: Intel had never achieved quarterly sales as high as they did in the last quarter. (more…)

Weekly Insight: Know When to Hold ‘Em

Tuesday, July 13th, 2010
By Kane Cotton
  9-July-10 2-July-10 Weekly% Change YTD% Change 12 month %Change
S&P 500 Index   1,077.96 1,022.58 5.42% -3.33% 22.62%
Dow Jones Industrial Average   10,198.03 9,686.48 5.28% -2.21% 25.18%
Nasdaq Composite   2,196.45 2,091.79 5.00% -3.20% 25.08%
Wilshire 5000   11,225.81 10,654.14 5.37% -2.36% 24.73%
MSCI EAFE (Intl.)   1,414.96 1,347.38 5.02% -10.49% 12.19%
10 Year U. S. Treasury Yield   3.05% 2.98% 2.35% NA NA
30 year U.S. Treasury Yield   4.04% 3.94% 2.54% NA NA

When playing poker, experts look for something they call a “tell” in their opponents. It could be a certain frown, or a sigh, or pursed lips or any number of other subtle things an opponent does when he is either feeling like he has a good hand or a bad hand. The expert then tries to exploit that “tell” to win hands of cards. (more…)

Weekly Insight: Valuing Uncertainty

Tuesday, July 6th, 2010
By Kane Cotton
  2-July-10 25-June-10 Weekly% Change YTD% Change 12 month %Change
S&P 500 Index   1,022.58 1,076.76 -5.03% -8.30% 14.07%
Dow Jones Industrial Average   9,686.48 10,143.81 -4.51% -7.11% 16.98%
Nasdaq Composite   2,091.79 2,223.48 -5.92% -7.82% 16.44%
Wilshire 5000   10,654.14 11,253.31 -5.32% -7.33% 15.79%
MSCI EAFE (Intl.)   1,347.38 1,395.48 -3.45% -14.76% 4.03%
10 Year U. S. Treasury Yield   2.98% 3.14% -5.10% NA NA
30 year U.S. Treasury Yield   3.94% 4.10% -3.90% NA NA

I hope you had a wonderful Independence Day. I know that I caught up on plenty of rest and relaxation while leaving a little time for celebration as well. Prior to the celebrations, though, investor nervousness took major domestic stock markets to new yearly lows. While unwelcomed, this wasn’t a huge surprise. After all, traders focused on the short term usually sell prior to long holiday weekends and volumes decline. (more…)